Despite the glaring evidence that Afghanistan is a failed state whose conditions have significantly worsened under the Karzai regime, and his abysmal popularity ratings, apathy abroad may assure his victory. There is an undeniable imbalance in the reporting of the campaign. According to the Ghani campaigners: “While the international community considers the race for president to be wide open, even bringing top officials to meet individually with leading candidates, the international media relies on weak tools to support its conclusion that Hamid Karzai will win. This is the first election where an incumbent is being challenged an election in Afghanistan. “Statistical” data is weak. The voting “behavior” of Afghans is not parallel to other countries. Polling is notoriously difficult and unreliable. Yet still many in the media are taking Hamid Karzai and his bought-off “analysts” at their word that he is certain to win.”

There is genuine reason to fear that after over 30 years of occupation by foreign forces intent on imposing overweening ideologies – Soviet Totalitarianism and the tragically-tainted version of US Democracy – by military might, to the despair and radicalisation of the suffering population, Afghanistan is too far gone and that occupation worsens the situation. This view was eloquently argued by Rory Stewart, on a BBC Newsnight special last Monday. Stewart, a patrician Old Etonian, follows the time-honoured English patrician penchant of wearing flowing robes at every possible opportunity and mucking in with the natives. For this reason he has acquired the title “Lawrence of Belgravia.” He now lectures at Harvard, but lived in Kabul for several years and thus speaks from experience – something which I for one don’t possess. He argued earlier this year that the Afghan military surge ‘option’ would fail (as it failed in Iraq, unless the definition of success is cementing the position of the militias). The Russians, arguably masters of ‘surging’ – throwing vast amounts of troops and armament into hopeless situations with scant regard for civilians – lost in excess of 35,000 soldiers in Afghanistan by their own (understated) reckoning. Yet they trounced Georgia in a week, despite the US-appointed ‘strongman’ Saakashvili’s supporting cast of Israeli advisors and US arms and subdued Chechnya in a vicious attritional campaign (where they installed their own bonkers warlord strongman). I’m certainly not endorsing Russian aggression in Georgia, much less Chechnya – another failed state. My point is that the Russians aren’t dummies and they certainly fought dirtier than the Nato forces, yet they failed in Afghanistan. The current occupiers will fare no better.

‘Imposing’ democracy on Afghanistan through the military might of an occupying force can only make a bad situation worse. Ashraf Ghani is right to assert that supporting an endemically corrupt regime in the name of ‘democracy’ is criminally counter-productive. Until and unless the foundations of a civil society are put in place, democracy stands no chance. Neither do the supporting cast in the Afghan elections if the international media persists in reporting the election as if the choice of Leader is a side issue on a chessboard where warring rooks, knights and bishops play centre stage, the pawns are sacrificed and the king is a cypher. That’s OK as a representation of Medieval feudal statesmanship, but no model of democracy.

John J Kelly

A close friend, far richer and better-informed than I (not difficult) sent me some completely speculative global economic notes, which he admits depend upon force majeure and all that. See how many you agree with. I personally think the oil price drop is overstated, since  China, India, parts of SE Asia some parts of Latin America but particularly Brazil are still growing. If India and China descend into full blown recession, then the world is in terminal trouble and we had better get used to austerity, if we’re not already there.

• Complete and fairly permanent reduction of bank credit globally, with certainly 3 and possibly 10 years or more of credit limitation. Absolutely no chance of inflation in the UK, USA or Western European Euro nations for the next 3 – 5 years at least. 

• Big potential arbitrage play between € and $.

• Swiss franc and US dollar the only worthwhile currencies for the next 24 months. Sterling to be back at 1.35€ – 1.50€ within 3 years, due to the relative economic weakness across the Eurozone. US dollar to be 1.05 – 1.15 against sterling by 2010 / 2011 (it currently stands at 0.68).

• Oil to bottom at between $16.00 and $19.00 per barrel over the next 12 months (currently $51.00).

All bets are off if the US adopts protectionism, apart from currency levels, which will be about the same and the oil price which will be even lower. If protectionism were to take hold in the USA the downside will be greater in the UK, Europe and China. (This last one I agree with, wholeheartedly).

Happy Easter, John J Kelly

We certainly won the war on terror - everyone's terrified now

Having reached all ‘the goals of the war, and beyond’ Israeli President Olmert trumpeted a unilateral truce to commence at 00.00 am today, having been told to stop killing so many civilians by the US on Friday, ahead of Obama’s inauguration and with enough dead and wounded Palestinians to ensure election victory. The calculation is that Hamas, who were reluctant to accept the truce, will cause sufficient trouble to make it OK for Israel to resume the killing after Barack has had time to settle down, and that Israel will look magnanimous for stopping the murdering. Given that Israeli Defence Force troops will continue to occupy Gaza and the strip will remain blockaded, the two preconditions of Hamas ‘disengagement’, the ceasefire may not hold very long.  If, on the other hand, the objective was to win an election for the neocons, it has been an enormous success- opinion polls in Israel are overwhelmingly pro-war, and those in the US aren’t that far behind. Israel won the propaganda war, with Australian smoothie Mark Regev (please indict him) trilling out lie after lie with no regard for the intelligence of his audiences. Fox News made sure that the US didn’t see too much, while the prospects of losing dwindling advertising dollars kept CNN and co. in check. So this was a success too.

Israel’s propaganda machine is well-funded – virtually all the US media has been either indifferent or silent about the Gaza massacres – or comprehensively biased towards Israel, a tendency well-satirised by Jon Stuart on January 9. A far less entertaining but deeply educational exegesis of the US media bias can be seen on Peace, Propaganda and the Promised Land. It’s worth watching, especially for the statement of the obvious: Gaza and the West Bank are Israeli occupied territories, yet the US media in particular, rarely mentions this somewhat relevant fact. If you’re feeling up to it, you can watch Biased Media Reports on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The relevant fact amongst many in this piece is that Palestinian deaths (before the latest Gaza bloodfest) outnumber Israelis by 8:1. 200,000 ‘settlers’ colonise Palestinian territory, in contravention of Article 4 of the Geneva Convention. This is ethnic cleansing, but the media has been annexed long ago. 

Indiscriminately shelling schools, hospitals and shooting civilians, especially children (human shields) has met with wild approval in Israel, so it’s Mission Accomplished all round. And just in case there are any hitches in the carefully planned Israeli democratic elections, Israel has banned Arab political parties from participating, (January 15)  adding accusations of apartheid to the UN calls for war crimes investigations – but the world scarcely noticed this act of blatant totalitarianism. Ironically, the three (3) Israeli civilians killed in this conflict were Bedouin construction workers – ‘Israeli’ Arabs. Israel lost ten soldiers – seven killed by their own forces – which means that Hamas didn’t claim a single victim in the ‘fierce’ street fighting which allegedly took place – itself a worrying contradiction, given that they were and are allegedly well-armed and trained by Iran. Since neither Egypt not Israel would allow observers in, the truth will remain under the rubble, but it’s also worth conjecturing as to why the highly ineffective Hamas rockets are of such poor, often home made quality if they again are supplied by Iran through immense tunnels.  

Informed sources aver that ‘phase 3′ of the ‘plan’ to ensure Israel’s security will take the form of an assault on the West Bank later this year in retaliation for  yet-unspecified acts of terrorism by Arab groups, ‘funded and armed by Iran’. This might explain the huge US weapons shipment reported last week, or, looking on the bright side, they may be destined for an assault on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities (despite the departing Head of US Intelligence’s report that it would be at least two years before Iran got anywhere near military grade nuclear weapons fuel, Israel claims they will be ready by the end of the year). 

Despite the heavy Zionist lobby in bomb-em Hilary Clinton’s department, Barack Obama might have the courage, good sense and statesmanship to put warmongering state terrorists on notice, as part of the urgent  process of rehabilitating America’s reputation. This turkey shoot marks the time when the civilised world ran out of sympathy for Israel. Nobody except ineffectual extremists  believe its existence is threatened, and nobody will allow it to use this tired excuse to enact acts of wanton murder and mayhem in Lebanon and Gaza with virtually no effective international sanctions.

Nobody believes the neocons either (except true believers and paid apparatchiks). For some reason we’ve sat back and allowed pinheads, state psychopaths, media monkeys and ‘intellectuals’ to tell us black is white. This happened in Germany and elsewhere and led to the last world war with all its attendant horrors. Israelis, of all people, should be mindful.

We are not all Hamas now. We never were. Neither were the ordinary people of Gaza, but probably the majority are now. Does this give Israel the right to wipe them out? Yes, according to the twisted logic of the Zionist extremists, even if they are defenceless women and children. If Hamas, PFLP, Hizbollah, Al Quaeda and all their various grisly provisional offshoots and splinter groups had any sense (which they generally haven’t) they would work hard to ensure that Israel was hung out to dry in the wind of international (dis) opprobrium – and preferably in the courts – rather than take more vicious potshots which will lead to more civilian massacres. But they won’t. They’ll do Israel’s bidding and we can look forward to a bloody summer, unless Obama show he is a man, not a politician. 

John J Kelly

Media censorship has a habit of rebounding. For example, even friendly media would struggle to describe the actions of Hamas, (whom I’ve already described in several posts as a bunch of criminal sociopaths originally sponsored by Mossad), but who have been morally strengthened by what can only politely be described as Israel’s ill-advised use of disproportionate force. It is entirely likely that they have been firing rockets out of heavily-populated positions  - Gaza is one of the world’s most densely-populated areas, so it’s hard to see how they could avoid doing so. Thus, they must be aware that in doing so they put the lives of civilians at risk. However, this equally means that the invading Israeli forces must have knowledge that in bombing buildings (and UN compounds) they will kill inncocents. Moreover, as the aforementioned grainy YouTube clips (some dating back to 2007) show, they have sophisticated surveillance techniques which show in minute detail the exact position of Hamas armament and fighters. Knowingly Bombing civilians is a crime against International Law and an indisputable breach of the Geneva Convention. Both Hamas and Israel are guilty and both should be censured. (For that matter, so should Britain and the US, for crimes in Afghanistan and Iraq, but that’s another sorry tale altogether).

I am equally certain that Hamas rockets might have done a lot more civilian damage over the past eight years, with a lot more international outrage, had the Southern Israel citizens not organised highly effective early warning systems and educated their children to flee to purpose-built shelters within a minute of hearing a siren. Whether or not the bombs don’t achieve their ‘goal’ of killing people, the effect of constant bombardment, even with toytown rockets, exacts a terrible toll on the hearts and minds of Israeli civilians, up to and including the biblical desire for revenge. Thus, Israel’s efficiency in defending its citizens has possibly and paradoxically contributed to the build-up to the present unequal contest. Allied to the sense of hopelessness in the face of muted international condemnation of Hamas (and Hizbollah), this may have led inexorably to a situation where the military hawks (vicious, opportunistic bullies but never the cleverest or most lateral thinkers) forced their ‘solution’ (bombing civilian populations) to the front of the agenda. 

The (deplorable) default position of the international liberal media is to don the keffiyeh and metaphorically chant Palestinian slogans, in a misplaced parody of 1968 and all that. On the other hand, the (majority) illiberal media, as represented by The Daily Mail and Telegraph in the UK, Fox News and most of the Murdoch gang in the US and elsewhere, are natural Neocon allies of Israel, especially in its current belligerent incarnation. By banning the media (in contravention of international law and in defiance of a ruling of the Israeli Parliament itself) Israel is laying itself open to the charge that it has all but abandoned any semblance of respect for natural human justice. In doing so, it puts itself on the same rogue state level as the criminal sociopaths from whom it so rightly feels the need to defend its citizens. 

Israel has now achieved its domestic objective: the forces of Netanyahu have prevailed and the country needs to dig in for a period of international ostracisation. The US and Britain will veto any Security Council Resolution condemning its actions, so it won’t face international sanctions. Hamas will be deposed and go underground (again), where its hard liners will resort to acts of covert terrorism which will kill many more innocent people. Likewise Hizbollah and other whacko Palestinian militants. The neighbours and relatives of the thousands killed, half-starved and displaced by the bombardments of Lebanon and Gaza will hate Israel even more and aid the terrorists (no change there). There is no other possible outcome at this stage than an increase in the likelihood of Terror – so thanks a lot from the rest of us. On the other hand, Israel will have its Right-Wing coalition and may well try and invade Iran. In which case, welcome to Armageddon (literally). 

Obama has his work cut out, though the composition of his advisors (Rham Emmanuel, Hilary Clinton and her Rubinesque cabal, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Soros et al) make it unlikely that much will change on the policy front. I’m not saying any more about this horrible mess, (even if I told you so) except that I am sorry for all the innocent people killed in the name of political expediency. It was ever thus.

John J Kelly

(Irish, friend of Jews everywhere but not fond of Israel, especially its Neanderthal politicians).

Israel is feeling “no real pressure” from the world to end the operation in the Gaza Strip, and the amount of time the international community will sit relatively quietly on the sidelines depends on how things develop, senior diplomatic officials said Sunday. According to the officials, one errant IDF shell could bring to a dramatic end what has been described as “greater understating than you can imagine” for Israel’s actions.” HERB KEINON, Jerusalem Post, Monday 29 December 2008.

No Arab, No Terror, by John Keane, The Inconvenience of History series, 2003

This article from today’s Jerusalem Post : Jerusalem: No international pressure to end op demonstrates the urgent need to send a clear public signal to Israel that its behaviour makes it a pariah in the international community and a threat to world peace. Dancing around the handbags is not an option. While it is true that the Christmas holidays meant that the liberal media was caught on the hop – The Guardian’s 27 December front page concerned the English High Street sales and the movements in Gaza were relegated to a couple of columns in the international section, for example – the world is now catching up. As the undemocratically-compromised US media shows itself broadly in favour of the genocide, up to and including the ‘food aid’ malarky (Thus passim) Israeli citizens should be made fully aware that the rest of the world won’t be fooled again. The Jerusalem Post article notes (disapprovingly) the disapproval of Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish Prime Minister (Thus passim). It also notes, approvingly, the tepid criticism from the EU and the unco-ordinated early statements from the UN, (now followed, as predicted, by a weak statement from the Security Council). The modus operandi of previous Israeli state terror campaigns has been to seek tacit approval from the US, start bombing and withdraw with no apologies or retribution when ‘objectives’ have been met, to muted protest from the western ‘powers’. There are moderate and balanced voices in the Israeli media prepared to describe this tragedy relatively objectively, such as Amos Harel of Haaretz:

The events along the southern front which commenced at 11:30 on Saturday morning are the closest thing there is to a war between Israel and Hamas. It is difficult to ascertain (geographically) where and for how long the violence will reach before international intervention forces a halt to the hostilities. However, Israel’s opening salvo is not merely another “surgical” operation or pinpoint strike. This is the harshest IDF assault on Gaza since the territory was captured during the Six-Day War in 1967.

“Palestinian sources in Gaza report that 40 targets were destroyed in a span of three to five minutes. This was a massive attack much along the lines of what the Americans termed “shock and awe” during their invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Simultaneous, heavy bombardment of a number of targets on which Israel spent months gathering intelligence. The military “target bank” includes dozens of additional targets linked to Hamas, some of which will certainly come under attack in the coming days.

“Like the U.S. assault on Iraq and the Israeli response to the abduction of IDF reservists Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser at the outset of the Second Lebanon War (the “night of the Fajr missiles,” a reference to the IAF destruction of Hezbollah’s arsenal of medium-range Fajr missiles), little to no weight was apparently devoted to the question of harming innocent civilians. From Israel’s standpoint, Hamas, which persistently fires rockets while using the civilian population as cover, had plenty of opportunities to save face and lower their demands. In stubbornly continuing to launch rockets during the course of recent weeks, it brought this assault on itself. (Read full article here).

The Hamas leadership are incompetent sociopaths who are treating their own constituents as pawns in this deadly game (witness the reports that they are not allowing the wounded access to Egyptian aid).  Sending rockets into civilian complexes, occupied by whoever, is unpardonable, as is suicide bombing and all its derivatives. But, like the US in Fallujah, for example, the ‘contest’ is grotesquely unequal. We expect a degree of compassion and forethought from one of the world’s most civilised and formerly-oppressed peoples. Yet, over the past eight years in particular, this wayward and dysfunctional offspring of Kissinger diplomacy has more or less rampaged as it pleased with a toy box full of the latest weaponry from its doting US parents, the Neocon Nutter family. Indeed, Israeli forces trained and equipped the hapless Georgian clients (2nd largest recipients of US aid after Israel) in their stupid assault on South Ossetia last August, which only now has the spin apparatus managed to turn into a Russian offensive. Nearer to home, Israel has twice trashed the Lebanon, scorched the West Bank, built a grotesque wall reminiscent of Berlin and any number of concentration camps and sewn the seeds of a generation of terrorists by half-starving the disenfranchised people of Gaza, whom it is now indiscriminately bombing prior to re-annexing their miserable territories. The ‘justification’ for all these acts is the ‘War on Terror.’ The reality is that Israel needs land for its immigrant settlers. It is easily the best-equipped military force in the region (with or without nuclear capability, which it has and has threatened to use) and long ago stopped worrying about security.

Except that last year’s land invasion of Lebanon did not go according to plan. A series of blunders and savage resistance from Hizbollah led to a withdrawal, which the incumbent government fears will be met with disapproval at the polls in February’s Israeli elections.

The Jerusalem Post is largely right in its assessment of the level of Western disapproval to date. AIPAC was so sure of its position that its offices were closed until today. But now China and others have joined the howls of protest, and even the UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband has hinted that he is . . . erm . . . less than happy with the slaughter side of things, there is a chance that Israel’s bloodlust can be tempered if enough people are brave enough to say ‘genug ist genug.’

It’s a small thing, but Avaaz have launched a petition, which you can sign here:

Thus will move on now that the regular news sources have come back from their holidays, but silobreaker.com is a good source of aggregated news and opinion for agnostics. The full force of AIPAC will be brought to bear on the world’s media and will intensify as this ‘conflict’ – or turkey shoot – enters its next stage. For light relief, I’ll be reviewing ‘Defiance’ and ‘Waltz with Bashir’ over the next couple of days.