Methadrone IS dangerous. Knock it on the head right now

March 29, 2010 – 12:12 pm

Shilly-shallying about what to do about Chinese designer ‘plant food’ drug Methadrone/Mephedrone/MCat is another unwelcome example of how New Labour’s passive/aggressive approach towards protecting citizens’ rights does the reverse. It’s enough to drive a man to spliff.

Last October, former NL drug czar, the (perhaps) aptly named Professor David Nutt resigned/was sacked from the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs (ACMD) for stating that so-called Home Secretary Alan Johnson must have been on one if he thought that upgrading cannabis from class C to B was a good trip. I was not surprised when Johnson later confirmed that Prof. Nutt had indeed been sacked, because his ‘advice’ cut across government policy to attack soft targets, such as weed-smoking kids, in order to maintain the pretence that the police, NL’s lard-arsed  political wing, were meeting their targets. Or something like that.

Nutt was sacked for arguing common sense. Alcohol misuse is linked to the overwhelming majority of violent crimes, ditto the number of admissions to hospital accident and emergency departments, breaks up families but is perfectly legal. Weed, and even Ecstasy are far less dangerous. Stoners can’t be arsed to do much more than flop around. Ecstasy becomes dangerous when taken in conjunction with alcohol. Banning one and not the other is a heavy trip down the road to – er  - somewhere else, man.

David Cameron as he might look were he unfortunate enough to become a Methadrone addict

But the Professor killed his own credibility when he strayed into the twilight zone of policy. A couple of his colleagues joined him and nobody apart from the Guardian gave a monkeys, until last weekend somebody called Dr. Polly Taylor also walked the ACMD plank. Speaking on the radio from Amsterdam yesterday – where he was possibly researching the wonders of legalised hash bars (despite what he was saying, there aren’t many left and it’s a load of bollocks to say that drug use in Holland is any less seedy than in the UK) – Professor Nutt reprised his theme that cannabis/weed is less dangerous than alchohol, criminalising it drives the price up, policing it costs money and wastes resources etc. Heavy.

Of course it is, but it’s a different argument. There is a time for expediency, and in the case of Methedrone, aka Mephadrone/M-kat, the time is now. I’m not a user myself, you may be surprised to know, but living in the ballsachingly trendy Bethnal Green/Shoreditch/Hoxton triangle, I know plenty of people with direct experience  - probably more than Alan Johnson or the nutty professor combined – who state categorically that this stuff is very, very bad indeed. Unlike the government or the squabbling scientists I’m happy to hear their unvarnished opinion that Methadrone is more moreish than Ketamine, Amphetamine Sulphide or Cocaine, can quickly reduce kids to a ‘feral’ state and, whether legal or not, creates a burning habit which sucks away money, energy and self-respect. Bummer.

Alan Johnson, as he may appear to David Cameron in his hypothetical state as a Methadrone addict

It is regrettable that political correctness, as represented by Professor Nutt and his grateful-not-to-be-dead academic colleagues, has fetched up against political opportunism, as represented by Alan Johnson and his soon-to-be-dead-in-the-water authoritarian bastard squad. I almost certainly know more about drugs on a first hand level than most of the boneheads in government – not sure about the Tories, though – but surely here is a clear case for decisive legislation. Regardless as to whether it played a small, middling or large part in the recent deaths of three kids, Methadrone is far more dangerous and nasty than weed and hash – think crystal meth and crack cocaine. Criminalising it may well create an underground black market and drive up the price, but it’s facile to argue that notoriety will add to its popularity, since it’s all over the news that the stuff is legal and relatively cheap. Banning its import and resale will only hurt those who wish to go out of their way to use it, and will almost certainly deter recreational/casual/impressionable drug fashionistas. Result.

Ban Methadrone with immediate effect, not because it may or may not have the potential to kill, but because it sure as hell doesn’t do anyone any good. Nor is this a Human Rights issue. If it drives the price up, then boo hoo for the prats who want to use it. And let’s not confuse this with the cannabis/marijuana debate, policy which is in itself influenced by Britain’s costly role as the 51st state of the USA.This is too serious a debate for the chatterati, so while we’re at it, bollocks to the Guardian and the Daily Mail. The drones who write for those rags should get out more. End of.

John J Kelly

By John Kelly | Posted in Culture, Drugs legislation, Law and order, Policy, Political spin, Uk Home Office, Uncategorized, World health, citizens' rights, civil rights, consumerism | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments (10)

Australian researchers discover the heaviest element yet known to science

January 31, 2010 – 9:35 am

This report came to me by email, so it must be true.

Queens University researchers have discovered the heaviest element yet known to science. The new element, Governmentium (symbol=Gv), has one neutron, 25 assistant neutrons, 88 deputy neutrons, and 198 assistant deputy neutrons, giving it an atomic mass of 312.

These 312 particles are held together by forces called morons, which are surrounded by vast quantities of lepton-like particles called pillocks. Since Governmentium has no electrons, it is inert. However, it can be detected, because it impedes every reaction with which it comes into contact.

A tiny amount of Governmentium can cause a reaction that would normally take less than a second, to take from 4 days to 4 years to complete. Governmentium has a normal half-life of 2 to 6 years. It does not decay, but instead undergoes a reorganization in which a portion of the assistant neutrons and deputy neutrons exchange places.

In fact, Governmentium’s mass will actually increase over time, since each reorganization will cause more morons to become neutrons, forming isodopes. This characteristic of moron promotion leads some scientists to believe that

Governmentium is formed whenever morons reach a critical concentration. This hypothetical quantity is referred to as critical morass. When catalyzed with money, Governmentium becomes Administratium (symbol=Ad), an element that radiates just as much energy as Governmentium, since it has half as many pillocks but twice as many morons.

By John Kelly | Posted in British identity, EU policy, International Affairs, Policy, Political spin, Politics, democracy, political theory | Comments (7)

Why Quality is important and why we need more of it

January 5, 2010 – 3:04 pm

A bunch of people out there believe that doing things better is the answer to our economic woes. I can’t argue with that, so I’ve recently joined the Chartered Quality Institute as its External Affairs spokesman, because I firmly believe that until and unless we get to grips with the wholly unnecessary and avoidable malaise which has afflicted our country, we’re doomed to second world status. I’m starting a CQI blog which will argue for a radical change in attitudes. Here’s a preview:

Few would argue that Quality, Service, Value are the cornerstones of a happy, prosperous and competitive economy. It is not good enough to explain the recent painful economic downturn on global macroeconomic conditions and wait for the upturn. No amount of economic or political smoke and mirrors will save a company, much less an economy, from the inevitable consequences of charging too much for indifferent products and services, produced wastefully. A high cost economy with diminishing competitive advantages cannot afford a £130 -160 billion budget deficit, growing at a rate of £11 billion per month.

The CQI is committed to opening a transparent debate as to whether UK Plc wishes to reaffirm its commitment to quality or continue as a casino economy with a few beacon enterprises but a static domestic manufacturing sector and an increasingly outsourced service sector. Politicians acknowledge that cuts in public spending will be necessary to make inroads into this unsustainable deficit, mitigated by improvements in efficiency and productivity. But this begs the question as to why this didn’t happen earlier. The answer is that quality management, in its absolute sense, took a back seat when cash was king.

Public sector net debt has risen from 50 – 60% of UK GDP since 1999 and public spending now accounts for over 43% of the UK national budget, or £13,000 for every adult UK citizen. Unless radical inroads are made to the cost of providing services – or radical cuts - the UK’s credit rating will be downgraded. This will not only affect the government’s ability to borrow,  but will impact on every business left standing.  Only a concerted, nationwide drive towards reducing costs – not reducing the numbers of people in work, by the way – waste reduction but, above all, realistic, sustained continuous improvement, in the way we work, in private and public sectors, will reduce the deficit between what we make and what we consume and enable us to export our surplus, competitively, thus creating jobs. Failure to do so will cripple our economy. This much is self-evident.

The CQI argues that the alternative to slash-and-burn is a root and branch revisiting of the Quality ethos. This in itself begs the question as to how and why we lost sight of these principles. One fundamental reason is that there is a fundamental semantic disconnect between the consumer perception of Quality and its technical application. Consumers value quality. Companies demand it from suppliers, but a significant number of businesses associate the term with quality assurance, compliance and conformance, which they regard as costing time, money and complexity whilst creating little added value. Standards and targets are important – the opposite is no consistency and no goals - but the first is an audit function and the second is an aspiration. The earliest formal definition of Quality states that:

Total quality control is an effective system for integrating the quality development, quality maintenance, and quality improvement efforts of the various groups in an organization so as to enable production and service at the most economical levels which allow full customer satisfaction. (A.V. Feigenbaum, 1956, Harvard Business Review).

The logic is simple and incontrovertible. Development, maintenance and improvement efforts are the basis of sustainability. Maintenance is relatively easy. Development should be a continous effort, but analysis of successive business cycles have shown that Quality is all-too-often a crisis driven initiative. Step changes in waste reduction, increased productivity, more satisfied customers and higher profits are often followed by a period of maintenance, characterised by audit and target-setting. But without holistic continuous improvement, entropy is inevitable and the root causes re-emerge. At this point the patient blames the medicine and fires the doctor and reaches for a new panacea.

Quality -or whatever you want to call it -  means making and doing things well and then working out how to do things better, at prices people can afford. There is no quick fix or magic potion – quite the reverse. We need to realign the ‘Q’ word and all its powerful nested values, tools and techniques, and rally our workforce around the slogan ‘making things better makes everything better.’ Customers need to be assured by the value and pleasure they derive from buying and using the best products and services that money can buy, not by adherence to international norms and standards. Workers need to be proud to deliver these goods, confident that in doing so, their careers and futures are assured. Anything less is simply not Quality. This much I know.

John J. Kelly

By John Kelly | Posted in British identity, Business, Development, Economics, Education, Finance, Welfare State, consumers, management strategy, manufacturing, public sector reform | Tagged , , , | Comments (2)

Afghan democracy postponed in an orgy of hypocrisy

November 3, 2009 – 1:43 pm

Thus predicted this outcome so long ago and so many times that I can scarcely be bothered to highlight our previous posts. Yet the grotesque reality of the US, Britain, NATO and especially the UN rewarding endemic fraud, corruption and weak government by a second term, all enacted under the banner of democracy, surpasses all expectations. Yesterday Tajik warlord Abdullah Abdullah declined to stand in the farcical runoff to the disgracefully-mismanaged Afghan ‘election.’ Not having the wherewithal and collateral to bribe as many ‘voters’ as President Karzai, he would have lost. His supporters have promised ‘Kalashnikovs on the streets.’ We predicted full-blown insurgency if Karzai got re-elected on a shoe-in. My views haven’t changed. Cry havoc and let slip.

Meanwhile, the same UN who spent between USD 150 – 250 million arranging this wet fish in the face of democratic practice, fired Peter Galbraith for daring to suggest that the outcome would be flawed and endorsed Kai Eide, the Norwegian Blue Parrot at the head of the UNAMA license to steal, are lining up to line their pockets anew. Why did the UN (and EU) doggedly stick by the election process, despite all the evidence that this will take the country (even further) down into the depths of violence and authoritarian kleptocracy? Sources in Kabul point to a new round of contracts, estimated at USD 4 billion, for the 5000+ UN agencies and NGOs running around in big white trucks doing fuck all. Bookmark this and see if I’m right. I apologise in advance if no new money is voted, Ban Ki Moon kicks Kai Eide up the arse and the ‘international community’ threatens withdrawal and sanctions. But the awful hypocrisy of  a rush to congratulate to Karzai from puddinghead Gordon Brown, wanky Ban Ki and the increasingly Bushlike Peace Prize Laureate Barack Obama are as emetic as anything I’ve seen for a very long time.

None of this was worth a single dead soldier, much less thousands of dead Afghan civilians. By the way, the ‘bad guys’ are in Pakistan – now. Drone bombing villages is winning no hearts and minds there either.

And another thing: while the grim spectre of mass murderer by proxy Tony Blair becoming EU President recedes, the boat is floating for David Miliband to become EU High Representative. His only qualification, apart from being a Blairite, is undying loyalty to Hillary Clinton and the US. If that’s what we want – the United States of Europe – he’ll be perfect and the EU will be involved in full scale conflicts, wherever liberal intervention sounds like a good idea, before you can skin a banana.

John J Kelly

By John Kelly | Posted in Afghanistan, Barack Obama, Development, Global security, Insurgency, carpet bombing, citizens' rights, democracy, ethnic cleansing | Comments Off

Exclusive: More prizes ahead for Obama

October 12, 2009 – 5:45 pm

Barack Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize, decided by an eminent panel of brown nosing illuminati in February 2009, less than a month after his inauguration, has been unfairly criticised by spoilsports and racists, determined to diss the US and generally keep a good man down. What will they say when it is revealed that has also scooped the prestigious UK Strictly Come Dancing award? Although Obama hasn’t entered, or declared any intention of doing so, clearly he should win on the grounds that if he did, he would be a perfect role model, leading to a spontaneous rise in ballroom dancing amongst world leaders. Tripping the light fantastic in taffeta and tails would be infinitely preferable to watching the G8 gargoyles justify pointless invasions, carpet bombing – now with drones – civilian populations, replacing genocidal kleptocracies seemingly at random with narco-genocidal kleptocracies, all in the in the name of fantasy ideologies and corporate plunder.

This is not to denigrate the Nobel Peace Prize. Previous US winners have included Henry Kissinger, without whose efforts Agent Orange or Pol Pot might just as well have been the names of household detergents. And let’s not forget Kofi Annan – crazy name, crazy guy – whose inspired and proactive UN leadership during a global upsurge of genocide and unrest – er – did fuck all to stop anything. So far, Obama has not closed down Guantanamo and has fudged the issue of outlawing US sponsored torture. He is poised to enthrone a blatantly corrupt warlord and stands on the brink of escalating the Afghan conflict into a full-blown war which carries no prospect of ‘victory’ for the US or anyone else. He regularly condones the use of pre-emptive murder of political opponents in foreign countries – drone bombing in Pakistan and Somalia, for example. He was notoriously silent on the Gaza atrocities and is turning a blind eye to Israel’s cruel, illegal East Jerusalem land grabs designed to provoke a third ‘final solution’ Intifada, while blathering about peace in the Middle East. Paradoxically, and probably for all the wrong reasons, Netanyahu is doing a far better job of facing down the extremists, but he’s no John Lennon.

A token prize to a token President who deems destroying Afghanistan part of a ‘necessary war’ on the grounds that eight years earlier the (Saudi) perpetrators of 9/11 lived there, while still fawning at the feet of the country which provided 17 of the 19 known terrorists involved and funds Wahabbist hate regimes sets a fine example to warmongers everywhere. Whatever next? Tony Blair as President of Europe? Or is that too far-fetched?

By John Kelly | Posted in Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

A government of national unity is the least worst option for Afghanistan

September 14, 2009 – 1:57 pm

A credible, inclusive and secure election was intended to deliver a government with sufficient legitimacy to win back the trust of the population and to work with the US and NATO to restore Afghan Sovereignty.  Instead, the Afghan population in general, and the youth and political activists in particular, now believe that a deeply flawed and corrupted election, marked by systematic fraud and low turnout, has robbed the country of the possibility of peaceful change.  The direct engagement of international organizations in the election and their endorsement of its credibility has made them suspect, simultaneously providing Iran and the Moslem world with an opportunity to question the West’s commitment to democracy. Salvaging a satisfactory outcome from a flawed process is still possible, provided urgent steps are taken. By John J Kelly.

Thus predicted that widespread fraud would take place in the Afghan elections, based on first source analysis on the ground allied to the hunch that the occupation forces would allow blind faith, optimism, expediency and an ideological fundamentalist belief in ‘democracy’ to triumph over common sense.  Kai Eide, Ostrich-in-Chief of  UNAMA and the EU clown troupe observers decreed the elections ‘fair but not necessarily free‘ before any votes had been counted. On the grounds alone that UNAMA spent an improbable $250 million engineering the mechanisms for this danse macabre on the grave of democracy in a failed state, Mr Eide and his money eaters should be declared unfit for purpose. Expecting the current process to produce a team with the credibility to tackle the insurgency and restore stability is, therefore, not realistic. It is more likely that a disenchanted population that now feels disenfranchised will tolerate an expanded insurgency, thereby endangering allied lives and assets, and significantly increasing the nature and dimensions of the challenge to NATO.

Should the election process be validated and the results accepted, the following consequences are probable: First, the government will become more predatory as the officials who committed fraud will feel emboldened by getting away with large scale corruption. Favours promised will be called in. Second, the population would be disenchanted with the process, the integrity and intentions of the Allied and international mission, and the new government, and withdraw further into devising ways to protect themselves from all sides.   Third, the insurgency, facing an openly illegitimate government, will have a renewed rallying cry and cause for recruitment. Fourth, the neighbours, particularly Iran, will become more assertive in Afghan affairs, and the struggle between intelligence services, particularly that of India, Pakistan and Russia, will increase significantly. Fifth, a weaker international community will not be able to take a strong posture vis-à-vis the government.

Richard Holbrooke, US ambassador to Afghanistan, is meanwhile trying to backstop the mess by engineering a runoff between Hamid Karzai and ex-foreign minister, Abdullah Abdullah (who declared the election fraudulent at an early stage). This is unlikely to enhance the legitimacy of the outcome, as corrupt chains of entrenched interests allied to both Karzai and Abdullah have already mobilized and near term measures will not suffice to loosen their grip on the levers of power and money. A rerun could consolidate and embolden those interests. Furthermore, an election in October will face major logistical obstacles. Given the discredit brought both on IEC and the UN agencies, proceeding with round 2 is likely to perpetuate some of the same symptoms. Moreover, according to complaints submitted to the Afghan Independent Election Commission, both candidates have engaged in widespread ballot rigging. Afghan sources speculate that if Karzai is disqualified (a big if) then the US should shift its backing to Abdullah on the basis that because he is weak he would be easier to control. The flaw in this twisted logic is that Abdullah has neither the strength, popular mandate nor ethnicity to keep the key warlords in check, his corruption might increase if mandated and once support was withdrawn he would be vaporised. Another option is a Karzai-Abdullah coalition – an infernal tag team if ever there was one.

Ashraf Ghani, whom, like Bashardost, ran on the anti-corruption ticket (as did Abdullah when he saw its potential) has proven experience in establishing governance and financial controls – he was finance minister in the last transitional government – has no presidential mandate (and originally stood reluctantly) but could play a key role as mediator, intermediary and Grand Vizier in a government of national unity, embracing all stakeholders, governed under strict, designed to restore sovereignty to the Afghans – an ostensibly ‘weak’ coalition, but infinitely preferable to a licence to steal for the next five years.

Thus has so far been the only site to point out the seeming anomaly between Karzai’s declaration of dubiously modest assets of $1000.00 plus $10,200 in family jewels‘ and his officially declared campaign war chest of a $2 million dollar interest free loan from the Bank of Ghazanhar. This sum represents 20% of the funds of this ‘bank,’ a philanthropic institution founded and run by the Ghazanfar family. How and when is this modest unassuming man on a salary of $487 per month going to repay the generosity of his altruistic supporters? Rather like the eponymous Producers in the Mel Brooks movie, he has already promised more seats in the new cabinet than currently available, to lovely men such as Dostum (Thus passim). He has polled 3000 votes in stations where observers only recorded 30 people voting. His brother Walid coincidentally hangs out with folks who allegedly control the opium trade while other family members, through sheer hard work no doubt, appear to run the country’s most  lucrative business franchises. He talks of having no truck with the Taliban but shamelessly passed the notorious wife-starving law shortly before the election. Is this a man ‘we’ can do business with? Though it pains me to say it, we have little choice. The most expedient figurehead leader would be Karzai, supported but not endorsed by the international community under strict and irreversible terms of conditionality.

The Taliban, meanwhile, have sat on their hands – having threatened to cut off the hands of anyone who voted – and shrewdly allowed the forces of ‘democracy’ to do their heavy lifting for them. They stand to gain from the continued uncertainty of a protracted runoff, a popular insurrection resulting from forcing through a blatantly corrupt result and a turf war between Tajik, Uzbek and Pashtun forces which would erupt if Abdullah is awarded the paper crown. Time is short: the results will be final on 17 September. So what to do? Clare Lockhart, of the Institute for State Effectiveness, summarises four options thus:

1. Accommodation with Mujahadeen: Accept Karzai’s claim of victory, and put together a Karzai-Abdullah coalition. This government could be stable in the short term, but is likely to be highly corrupt and unstable in the medium term. Some concessions could be extracted, including the inclusion of technocratic positions and commitment to the US 5-point agenda already discussed with candidates and the restoration of Afghan sovereignty. It is questionable as to whether concessions would be agreed upon or adhered to.

2. Formation of a national government headed by Karzai: Instead of waiting for implosion, action is taken now to put together a national government, with inclusion of broad stakeholder interest groups. A set of benchmarks and processes could be followed and the international community and the Afghan government could sign a binding compact.

3. Formation of a Transitional Government for a two to three year period: The election is deemed fatally flawed and the International Community declare it invalid and disqualify Mr Karzai. A Transitional Government is put together, along the lines of the Bonn Agreement 2002-4, with the key change that key figures will commit not to run for elected office in future. This Administration would be tasked with stabilizing the country and building the basic institutions that would allow for exit of the international presence.

4. Form a quasi-protectorate under an US/international driven agenda, creating governance bottom up, and marginalize the Afghan institutions for a period of time.

Option 2 is the most likely and the most expedient. The loser in this entire sorry process has been the notion of democracy, at least in its US interpretation. The bigger loser could be Barack Obama, who will be a one term President if his administration allows Afghanistan to become his Vietnam.

By John Kelly | Posted in Afghanistan, Barack Obama, Culture, Global security, Insurgency, democracy | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Carry on up the Khyber – Karzai's lead narrows (like we said it would)

August 25, 2009 – 9:08 pm

“If Karzai’s warlord cronies have over-egged the firnee and their boy romps home with an incredible margin, Iran-style riots are almost inevitable. On the other hand, if he narrowly wins, it will be more difficult for the opposition forces to cry foul. Given that he achieved only 54 per cent in 2004, the ‘ideal’ result for Karzai would be a tight margin of victory but no runoff, so we’ll see how these figures change if and when the penny drops.” (Thus passim)

There are more twists in the tale of the Afghan elections than Hamid Karzai’s S shaped bed – not that I’d know, I hasten to add. What I do know is that donkeys laden with ballot boxes are finding their way back to Kabul to deliver the verdict that the international community needs – ‘don’t panic, democracy is flowering in Afghanistan.’ Well I reserve the right to panic. Another four soldiers died today, along with at least 30 civilians and 56 others wounded in Kandahar.

Here’s a suggestion for the Afghan election theme:

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss . . .

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss . . .

We’ll be fighting in the streets
With our children at our feet
And the morals that they worship will be gone
And the men who spurred us on
Sit in judgment of all wrong
They decide and the shotgun sings the song

I’ll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around me
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
And I’ll get on my knees and pray We don’t get fooled again. (The Who: Won’t get fooled again)

The only thing flowering is Poppy, and the chief gardener, who ‘borrowed’ $2 million interest free from the Ghazanfar Bank, (how and in what form will he make repayments?) has now seen his ‘massive lead’ whittled down to a ‘narrow lead’ over the man who spent the second biggest amount campaigning. To this extent, the Afghan campaign followed the ‘democratic’ model of the US – money talks. As I said several posts back, in lieu of a fair result, we might as well accept Karzai in preference to a prolonged period of even more violence and bloodcurdling carryings-on that might be generated in a runoff – but on the other hand, Abdullah has hinted that his supporters might get frisky if the ‘election is seen to be rigged’. Todays preliminary results (based on 10% of the votes cast, give Karzai 41% and Abdullah 39%, but do not include any votes from the south, where Karzai will win whatever votes the Taliban allowed to be cast. I’ve seen more convincing all-in wrestling bouts – in fact, a novel runoff might take the form of Karzai vs Abdullah, mano a mano, in the ring, wearing tights and masks, of course.

But let’s be serious for once. Thus has a brilliant idea (though I say so myself). Why not bring in Jeb Bush, Former Governor of Florida, to supervise and fine tune the election count? No-one could argue with that – after all, they didn’t in the 2000 US elections.

John J Kelly

By John Kelly | Posted in Afghanistan, Asia, Global security, Human rights, Insurgency, Law and order, United Nations, War on Terror, citizens' rights, civil rights, democracy | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off

Afghan election update: Karzai rumoured to have won with an improbable majority

August 24, 2009 – 4:18 pm

It is rumoured in Kabul that the Independent Election Commission is under pressure to rush out election results in an effort to accustom public opinion to the legitimacy of a Karzai victory which some are already claiming could be greater than 70 percent. Unofficial reports (Press TV) claim that Karzai has won with 3,244,196 votes (70 percent), Abdullah 1,029,467 9 (23 percent), the populist Bashardost 189,659 and Thus man Ghani trailing in fourth with only 47,954, proving that nice guys finish last in Death Race 2009. Given that hardly anyone voted in Helmand for obvious reasons and the Pashtuns were – sort of – obliged to vote for Karzai, only those who clung to the belief that this was a democratic process should be surprised.

The same report claimed that only 7.5 million of Afghanistan’s 17.5 million eligible voters had registered. Free and fair?

If Karzai’s warlord cronies have over-egged the firnee and their boy romps home with an incredible margin, Iran-style riots are almost inevitable. On the other hand, if he narrowly wins, it will be more difficult for the opposition forces to cry foul. Given that he achieved only 54 per cent in 2004, the ‘ideal’ result for Karzai would be a tight margin of victory but no runoff, so we’ll see how these figures change if and when the penny drops. Since Abdullah has already declared the election to be rigged, Karzai has retaliated by declaring that he has evidence that Abdullah engaged in fraud and Ghani has submitted evidence to show that both engaged in fraud (previous post) it would perhaps be pruduent to publicly examine these claims before declaring results and certainly before starting the next Karzai puppet show.

Meanwhile, an Aljazeera film report, broadcast on YouTube shows that rumours of Taliban inactivity during the deeply troubled Afghan election may have been wishful thinking on the part of the UN observers. Indeed, the relative calm from the fundamentally religious fanatics may have more to do with the month of Ramadan, when killing and amputating, especially during daylight hours, especially of other Muslims and women, is strictly prohibited, as any Talib scholar knows. The news clip shows Taliban fighters accusing hapless voters of ‘standing in line with the Jews.’ This pointless and immature anti-semitism should not surprise us but adds another horrid ingredient to the devil’s brew in this terrible conflict. If a central plank of the Taliban’s twisted ideology is to equate the US and occupying forces with ‘Jews’ and the Palestine question, this explains why the US cannot leave (and why AIPAC were so keen to get them in there in the first place). However, it has clearly escaped the attention of the men in black that ‘Jews’ aside,  Hamas themselves have been fighting Taliban/Al Quaeda in Gaza and Fatah is likewise fiercely secularist. Ideologically, the Taliban have more in common with fundamentalist Jewish settlers than they do with secular Palestinians, who have more in common with everyday Israelis than politicians on either side would have us believe.

Elections need a bedrock of governance, and Afghanistan is naturally federalist, to say the least. Given the overwhelming evidence of fraud, intimidation and corruption, it would make most sense to form an interim government of national unity charged with establishing  norms of representative governance, auditable finances, prioritising aid and (preferably) development to the benighted swathes of the population who cannot eat votes.  Easy to say – and actually, relatively easy to do, in principle. A constructive task of nation-building would give everyone hope and put some of the whackjobs on the back foot, whilst buying time for the occupying forces to think up a face-saving exit strategy. Legitimising a joke election will sustain a toxic status quo and will almost certainly lead to more instability and bloodshed, which would suit the Taliban just fine. What price democracy? About $250 million if we’re talking about the UNAMA budget to mismanage this farce.

John J Kelly

By John Kelly | Posted in Afghanistan, Development, Global security, Insurgency, Intifada, Law and order, Middle East, Palestine, United Nations, War on Terror, democracy, gaza | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Update: Abdullah and Karzai accused of Afghan election fraud

August 23, 2009 – 8:48 pm

This morning, in a cynical volte face, Abdullah Abdullah, the leading challenger to incumbent, President Karzai, declared that the Afghan election was rigged, having previously declared himself the winner. Earlier speculation that the two candidates identified by a Free and Fair Elections spokesman as responsible for widespread intimidation and ballot-rigging in the Afghan election (Thus passim) were the two front runners has been strengthened by a leaked document to the Afghan Election Complaints Commission from the Ashraf Ghani campaign detailing and citing specific abuses. The document alleges abuses by both the Karzai and Abdullah factions, and places the incidents in specific locations. This coincides with news from Kabul that owing to widespread complaints of fraud, intimidation and bribery, the election results may be delayed.

Whilst acknowledging that Thus supports the Ghani campaign and allowing for the fact that ‘he would say that,’  we publish the Ghani camp complaints without comment and without vouching for the detail, which will no doubt be judged by the Election Complaints Commission. What it demonstrates is that this was neither a free nor a fair election, and the result should not be allowed to stand, at least not under the banner of democracy or any such other fantasy construct. Abdullah Abdullah’s statement today shows that he agrees, and from the look of this document, he’s in a perfect position to know. Here’s the list in full:

Election Fraud Complaints Filed to the ECC by Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai Campaign

No Province District Vote Station Description
1. Balkh Several Fatima Balkhi high school, Nahr Shahi high school, Qazi Aminoddin Shahid high school, Bandar Sakhi Abad high school Abdullah’s persons interfere to the election process and force people to vote for Abdullah.
2. Balkh Plas Poosh — People are forced by gunmen to vote for Abdullah.
3. Baghlan Dahane Ghori Several Karzai’s equipped persons with Abdullah’s persons are fighting. So that polling stations are shut.
4. Baghlan New Baghlan Several Police commander of central Baghlan (Afzal Khan) has been killed during an attack. Baghlan People are fearful and some polling stations are closed in Baghlan Province.
5. Farah Qala Fereydon & Farah Roud — People are scared because of blast of two rockets and they don’t come out for vote.
6. Farah Ganj Abad — Karzai’s persons compel people to vote for karzai.
7. Herat Tor’ghandi & Chel Dokhtaran Masjid Chel Dokhtaran Awal & Chel Dokhtaran Dowom Karzai’s supporters beat people and prevent them to vote.
8. Herat Pashton Zarghon, Shindand, Odreskan Several Individuals bring large number of votes and put them in the ballot Boxes in favor of Karzai.
9. Herat Bandar Torghandi Several A Karzai’s man, Haji Mohammad came to the polling locations and compelled people with gun to vote for Karzai.
10. Helmand Bast Khari — Haji Mahmood and Gol Khan have filled ballot boxes for Karzai and polling stations are shut.
11. Helmand Nahr Saraj & Marja Several Taliban prevent people to vote and polling stations are closed.
12. Helmand Lashkar’gah city Kart-e Lagan Vote Cards (One bag) are being distributed for people to vote for Karzai.
13. Helmand — Kariz Haji Nik Mohammad has filled the ballot boxes for Karzai.
14. Kabul Hese Awal Khair-Khana Masjid Jame Abdullah’s supporters with sign of Abdullah in their shirts force people to vote for Abdullah.
15. Kabul 2nd District Zabihullah Khan high school IEC women officers are guiding women to vote for Abdullah.
16. Kabul Deh Sabz Bakhtiaran high School & Mohammadia high school Mullah Liwanai Tarakhil a member of Afghan Parliament last night took the vote boxes at home and filled them for Karzai. Today morning when he gave the boxes to the IEC officer, he didn’t take the boxes. The IEC officer has been fired from his job by forcing Tarakhil.
17. Kabul 10th district Char Qala Wazir Abad & Masjid Shobair’ha

& Masjid Sayed Nezam

 Karzai’s Observers encourage people to vote for karzai.
18. Kabul — Habibia High School The color is removable. Sometimes IEC officers don’t make hole in voters’ cards.
19. Kabul Qala Mohsen in Ahmad Shah Mina Several The police are closing polling locations. Call Dr. Weir 0775985290
20. Kabul Saburi Local ballot box stuffing from a supporter. Call Mahsdour 0788622433
21. Kabul 8th District Sayed Noor Mohammad Shah mina high school Voice of shooting, rockets and other weapons are heard. Polling is stopped.
22. Kabul All Majority Removable color, cutting cards with knife and tweezers instead of punch.
23. Kabul 13th, 6th Several Vote time extended to 5:00 PM but people voted until 6:00 PM illegally.
24. Kapisa Tagab All Afghan police are fighting with Taliban and people don’t come out for vote.
25. Khost Tanai, Domda, Nadershah Kot All 12000 women fake vote cards in Tanai District, 4000 fake vote cards in Domda district, 3000 fake vote cards in  Nadershah Kot district, were distributed for people to vote for Shahnawaz Tanai. Total 19000 fake vote cards.
26. Khost Nadershah Kot Several Mohabat Khan, IEC officer in Nadershah Kot, has taken money in bribe from Shahnawaz Tanay, a presidential candidate, and promised him to make him the second one in Khost Province after Karzai.
27. Kunar All All All vote stations are shut due to regional critics and fight among Jihadi Commanders. Also Taliban attacked on Police Security Office of Kunar Province.
28. Maydan Wardak Jalriz & Kharolang Several Vote stations mostly are shut by Karzai’s men including Afghan Security forces. Taliban prevent people to vote as well.
29. Nimroz Zaranj Kakara A remote control mine has been detected by Afghan Security forces. People are fearful and don’t vote.
30. Parwan — Pol-e Sofian & Baghe Shahi Removable color, forcing people to vote for Karzai
31. Qandahar — Zarghona Ana IEC women officers are guiding women to vote for Abdullah.
32. Qandahar All Districts All The ballot boxes were filled last night. Not many people voted today. They might be announcing the results based on last night.
33. Qandahar Spin Boldak Akhtar Zai & Loy Kariz Ahmadullah (DFC) stuffing ballot boxes at his home in favor of Karzai. Reported by Mohammad Ewaz, deputy of Ahmadullah.
34. Qandahar Arghizestan & Bala Zhera Several Taliban occupied the region.
35. Qandahar Maaruf, Shin Ghazi, Toghara, Salson, Pirzai Ballot Boxes have been filled for Karzai.
36. Qandahar Rigestan, Malayat, Arghestan — Vote stations are closed.
37. Qandahar Spin Boldak Several Ballot boxes were filled for Karzai at night.
38. Qandahar Spin Boldak Babol Afghan Police don’t permit to anyone for polling.

John J. Kelly

By John Kelly | Posted in Afghanistan, Middle East, Policy, Politics, citizens' rights, democracy, miscarriage of justice | Tagged | Comments Off