So now I’ve become a hermit recluse, writing down the bones from my damp fastness up here, 1000 meters (3000 feet) higher than Katmandu, in the town where Colonel Snooker (who else?) invented snooker. Daniel Taghioff, who helped me start Thusmagazine from the very desk at which I now sit, has vacated this damp but incredibly cheap and spacious hillside cottage to campaign for the Green Party of India, leaving me an ethnic minority of one. I have inherited a cook called Shankar – obviously not Ravi – who serves lunch, tea and popcorn (?) in the afternoon and cooks an evening meal before sloping off around 3 pm to get rat arsed. The altitude sickness soon subsides, the monkeys are not dangerous and apart from a genuinely startling encounter with a gang of shemales, dressed in immaculate saris but with telltale big hands and chiselled jaws (Back Passage to India?) I have been unmolested by beggars. It’s too high up and cold for malarial mosquitoes. The plusses simply pile up.

Now all I need to do is write this book, which may or may not be about robots.

Last October, former NL drug czar, the (perhaps) aptly named Professor David Nutt resigned/was sacked from the Advisory Council on the Misuse of Drugs (ACMD) for stating that so-called Home Secretary Alan Johnson must have been on one if he thought that upgrading cannabis from class C to B was a good trip. I was not surprised when Johnson later confirmed that Prof. Nutt had indeed been sacked, because his ‘advice’ cut across government policy to attack soft targets, such as weed-smoking kids, in order to maintain the pretence that the police, NL’s lard-arsed  political wing, were meeting their targets. Or something like that.

Nutt was sacked for arguing common sense. Alcohol misuse is linked to the overwhelming majority of violent crimes, ditto the number of admissions to hospital accident and emergency departments, breaks up families but is perfectly legal. Weed, and even Ecstasy are far less dangerous. Stoners can’t be arsed to do much more than flop around. Ecstasy becomes dangerous when taken in conjunction with alcohol. Banning one and not the other is a heavy trip down the road to – er  - somewhere else, man.

David Cameron as he might look were he unfortunate enough to become a Methadrone addict

But the Professor killed his own credibility when he strayed into the twilight zone of policy. A couple of his colleagues joined him and nobody apart from the Guardian gave a monkeys, until last weekend somebody called Dr. Polly Taylor also walked the ACMD plank. Speaking on the radio from Amsterdam yesterday – where he was possibly researching the wonders of legalised hash bars (despite what he was saying, there aren’t many left and it’s a load of bollocks to say that drug use in Holland is any less seedy than in the UK) – Professor Nutt reprised his theme that cannabis/weed is less dangerous than alchohol, criminalising it drives the price up, policing it costs money and wastes resources etc. Heavy.

Of course it is, but it’s a different argument. There is a time for expediency, and in the case of Methedrone, aka Mephadrone/M-kat, the time is now. I’m not a user myself, you may be surprised to know, but living in the ballsachingly trendy Bethnal Green/Shoreditch/Hoxton triangle, I know plenty of people with direct experience  - probably more than Alan Johnson or the nutty professor combined – who state categorically that this stuff is very, very bad indeed. Unlike the government or the squabbling scientists I’m happy to hear their unvarnished opinion that Methadrone is more moreish than Ketamine, Amphetamine Sulphide or Cocaine, can quickly reduce kids to a ‘feral’ state and, whether legal or not, creates a burning habit which sucks away money, energy and self-respect. Bummer.

Alan Johnson, as he may appear to David Cameron in his hypothetical state as a Methadrone addict

It is regrettable that political correctness, as represented by Professor Nutt and his grateful-not-to-be-dead academic colleagues, has fetched up against political opportunism, as represented by Alan Johnson and his soon-to-be-dead-in-the-water authoritarian bastard squad. I almost certainly know more about drugs on a first hand level than most of the boneheads in government – not sure about the Tories, though – but surely here is a clear case for decisive legislation. Regardless as to whether it played a small, middling or large part in the recent deaths of three kids, Methadrone is far more dangerous and nasty than weed and hash – think crystal meth and crack cocaine. Criminalising it may well create an underground black market and drive up the price, but it’s facile to argue that notoriety will add to its popularity, since it’s all over the news that the stuff is legal and relatively cheap. Banning its import and resale will only hurt those who wish to go out of their way to use it, and will almost certainly deter recreational/casual/impressionable drug fashionistas. Result.

Ban Methadrone with immediate effect, not because it may or may not have the potential to kill, but because it sure as hell doesn’t do anyone any good. Nor is this a Human Rights issue. If it drives the price up, then boo hoo for the prats who want to use it. And let’s not confuse this with the cannabis/marijuana debate, policy which is in itself influenced by Britain’s costly role as the 51st state of the USA.This is too serious a debate for the chatterati, so while we’re at it, bollocks to the Guardian and the Daily Mail. The drones who write for those rags should get out more. End of.

John J Kelly

This is not to denigrate the Nobel Peace Prize. Previous US winners have included Henry Kissinger, without whose efforts Agent Orange or Pol Pot might just as well have been the names of household detergents. And let’s not forget Kofi Annan – crazy name, crazy guy – whose inspired and proactive UN leadership during a global upsurge of genocide and unrest – er – did fuck all to stop anything. So far, Obama has not closed down Guantanamo and has fudged the issue of outlawing US sponsored torture. He is poised to enthrone a blatantly corrupt warlord and stands on the brink of escalating the Afghan conflict into a full-blown war which carries no prospect of ‘victory’ for the US or anyone else. He regularly condones the use of pre-emptive murder of political opponents in foreign countries – drone bombing in Pakistan and Somalia, for example. He was notoriously silent on the Gaza atrocities and is turning a blind eye to Israel’s cruel, illegal East Jerusalem land grabs designed to provoke a third ‘final solution’ Intifada, while blathering about peace in the Middle East. Paradoxically, and probably for all the wrong reasons, Netanyahu is doing a far better job of facing down the extremists, but he’s no John Lennon.

A token prize to a token President who deems destroying Afghanistan part of a ‘necessary war’ on the grounds that eight years earlier the (Saudi) perpetrators of 9/11 lived there, while still fawning at the feet of the country which provided 17 of the 19 known terrorists involved and funds Wahabbist hate regimes sets a fine example to warmongers everywhere. Whatever next? Tony Blair as President of Europe? Or is that too far-fetched?

On the National Express, there’s a jolly hostess, selling crisps and tea. She’ll provide you with drinks and theatrical winks for a sky-high fee. We’re going where the air is free. Tomorrow belongs to me. Lyrics from ‘National Express,’ by The Divine Comedy.

First, let me apologise for foolishly assuming that National Express, the (privatised) UK bus company, chaired until last week by well-connected Richard Bowker, was clever enough to engineer a de facto merger with Virgin Trains/Stagecoach (Thus passim) and thus recreate a large part of the old subsidised British Rail monopoly under the guise of privatisation. I also apologise for stating the National Express was profitable: it was, until it grossly overbid for the UK’s East Coast Railway franchise. With decent rolling stock a clear run from London to Edinburgh and beyond, taking in Peterborough, Leeds, York, Newcastle along the route, even National Express should have been able to make money. But recession hit passenger numbers on the jewel in the crown of the UK rail network, and as we all know, the name of the game in privatisation is short term gain for no pain. Under pressure to defend a takeover bid from a rival, First Connect, Bowker went cap in hand, revolver in the other hand, to the government, proposing that unless the franchise terms were renegociated and more subsidies provided, National Express would need to walk away from the franchise.

In his previous guise as Chairman of the Strategic Rail Authority (not strategic and with no authority) he had seen the ploy work time and time again, especially when practised by his old boss, ‘Sir’ Richard Branson, part owner of Virgin Rail. But this time he ran out of track. Labour’s new Transport Minister, ‘Lord’ Andrew Adonis, was in no mood for handing out second chances, especially fresh from the horror of allegedly spending the last six months travelling around Britain by train (probably First Class). He threatened National Express with the loss of its remaining two franchises if it walked away from the East Coast then took the initiative last week and announced that the government would temporarily renationalise while arrangements were made to re-tender. His argument, that a rail franchise was not just for Christmas, is hard to counter. But National Express couldn’t believe what it was hearing. Its website is still in a state of shock:

“Following reports in the media about National Express East Coast, we would like to ensure all our customers have the correct information. National Express East Coast is continuing to run the East Coast business and we will continue to operate all of our services to current timetables. Despite suggestions that the Government is taking over the running of East Coast today, this is absolutely NOT true.”

“Further comments that the National Express Group has “financial problems” which have led to it “defaulting” on its commitments to East Coast are also NOT true.”

These are serious allegations. If these reports are ‘not true’ then National Express are accusing the government and Transport Minister of misleading and lying to the public – Adonis made his announcements on national radio last week. Moreover, Bowker resigned the day before the announcement, and is moving to a job in the Gulf. Incredibly, National Express claim his departure was entirely coincidental.

The truth is that the government has weighed up the potential damage of propping up yet another privatised lame duck and has decided that renationalisation will win more votes. In the current climate, they may have made the right call. Moreover, as the song from the Divine Comedy illustrates, National Express is hardly a benchmark of operating excellence. Whether in public or private hands, poor service, high prices and abuse of quasi-monopoly conditions – British rail fares are amongst the highest in the world, despite burgeoning demand – are a recipe for failure. The Tories engineered the rail privatisation disaster. To its credit, Labour saved the system from collapse by renationalising Network Rail, the infrastructure provider, in 1992. But Bowker, Branson, Souter and uncle Tom Cobbley have filled every orifice with public cash subsidies for marginal service improvements in the intervening 16 years. Adonis called it right. If someone would call the bluff of the larcenous utility companies, Labour might be in with a fighting chance of turning public opinion round. A public utility franchise is not just for Christmas.

John J Kelly

There is little I can add to the well-published facts surrounding the odious activities of the head of Downing St. Strategy and Planning Unit, Damian McBride, except to state the facts. He was one of Gordon Brown’s most senior and long-standing aides, a fellow Scot, known in media circles as ‘McPoison,‘ partly for his habit of sending vicious and intimidatory texts to journalists who failed to toe the party line. He was paid a ‘six figure’ salary by the UK taxpayer to smear detractors at the government’s behest. His resignation statement borders on the psychotic, opening with an attack on Tory blogger Paul Staines, (Guido Fawkes) for revealing the plot to disseminate vicious slurs on the Shadow Prime Minister and Chancellor, implying that Staines should have kept quiet about libellous emails intended to illegally and maliciously distort public opinion of HM Official opposition. He then claims that the idea originated with co-conspirator Derek Draper, as a counter to unspecified anti-Labour slurs. The emails suggested using libelous and unfounded accusations that the Shadow Prime Minister had a sexually transmitted disease (he and his wife recently lost a child) and sexual allegations against the Shadow Chancellor, amongst others. The Prime Minister, usually quick to claim the moral high ground, has not come forward with a statement of condemnation. Alan Johnson, Health Secretary, while admitting that the allegations were ‘disgusting,’ attempted to make light of the issue on BBC Radio 4 this morning, denying any responsibility on the part of McBride’s employer. (In passing, it has been alleged elsewhere that Karl Milner, another former Brown aide, former political lobbyist and implicated with Draper in the 1998 ‘Lobbygate’ scandal – see below – may have handled donations for Johnson’s Deputy Leadership campaign).

McBride puts his fellow conspirator firmly in the frame. “When Derek Draper originally suggested using a website to compete with the kind of material seen regularly on the Guido Fawkes blog, he asked me in a personal capacity to write up some of the stories doing the rounds in Westminster. Derek and I decided in the end that this website was the wrong thing to do, and that Derek should not take his online efforts down to the level of Guido Fawkes and his Tory backers.” (McBride resignation statement). Draper, a former aide to twice-banished ‘Lord’ Peter Mandelson, was himself disgraced in the 1998 ‘Lobbygate’ scandal, where he claimed that he could facilitate access to New Labour insiders and cabinet figures for a fee. He suffered a breakdown, went to California via The Priory, gained an MA in Clinical Psychology (though not at Berkeley as he implied on his CV) and re-invented himself as a BACP accredited psychotherapist. This latest backsliding suggests that he may be in need of some serious supervision.

Recently Draper re-entered the world of politics with his LabourList website. His own ‘apologies and regrets‘ blog on this website today shows little in the way of apology and insufficient ‘regret’. In proposing that we ‘draw a line’ under this ‘silly’ episode, while repeating Green’s ‘excuse’ that the emails should never have seen the light of day, he omits to mention that his putative vehicle for smear, “RedRag” is still a registered domain (listed under an accommodation address). While he and Green have accused unnamed Tory grandees of supporting Guido Fawkes, he has repeatedly claimed that LabourList is completely independent of New Labour. Yet its content unambiguously supports the party line and boasts of inside track information. As for smears, recent examples of its top-level agenda-setting stories in the national interest include a story about Tory Transport spokesman John Leech MP forgetting to renew his car tax. Draper has repeatedly sidestepped questions as to who supports/endorses and/or contributes to LabourList, and whether they are part of the incumbent government and its fellow travellers.

The third recipient of sordid emails, Charlie Whelan, was a sweary former spin doctor (aide to Gordon Brown, no less) under the Blair-led Government, who ‘stepped down’ after the 1999 Mandelson home loan scandal, and is now Press Officer of the Unite trade union. All three have strong links to Labour/Brown and/or Mandelson. One was on the government payroll in a senior official advisory capacity. It beggars belief that the country should ‘draw a line’ under this conspiracy to sink British politics to the gutter levels which did so much damage to democracy in the US. Brown needs to issue a statement of unqualified condemnation and apology to the Conservatives and to the country. Anything less is an admission of complicity, and failure to do so should be seen in its own context. In passing, it is obviously and wholly coincidental that the recent resurgence of slimeball spin doctoring and dark arts, which Brown vowed to end when he became Prime Minister, appears to have coincided with the reappearance in High Office of the spotless Peter Mandelson, who allegedly ‘poured poison’ about Gordon Brown into the ear of George Osborne on the boat of a Russian Oligarch (Yachtgate) in an incident which led to Osborne’s political discomfiture, three months before Mandelson returned to government. So successful was his black propaganda that nobody asked what the EU Trade Commissioner was doing on Oleg Deripaska‘s yacht, where he allegedly stayed for a week.

John J Kelly

Up for it. 'Left unchecked, we have a more violent crowd in uniform than the crowd who are demonstrating.' Former Asst. Met Commissioner Andy Hayman

Paul Hilder of Avaaz.org believes peaceful protests can change the world. My heart says he’s right but how would Gandhi have fared in Britain today? 2 million protested in the UK alone against the Iraq war in 2003 and Britain still participated in an illegal war. Tibetan human rights protesters were kettled and cudgelled when the Chinese Premier came to pick up a few tips on human rights from Blair and when Brown slavered over the Olympic flame. On the other hand, a few hundred berserkers trashed buildings in central London in the infamous 1990 Poll Tax riots and defeated Margaret Thatcher. More recently Thai protesters demanding the resignation of the current Prime minister succeeded in disrupting the Summit of South East Asian nations in Pattaya. Without in any way condoning their actions or motives – whether or not the current Thai Prime Minister is democratically elected (like the UK Prime Minister he isn’t) anyone who wants to see the return of the clearly corrupt former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra needs some sort of re-education – but they wrecked nine months of careful preparation and gave the Chinese premier, amongst others, a glimpse of unfettered people power in action. Clearly that’s what the Powers That Be fear most. The British police and security services demonstrably would not have let this happen. The question is, how far are we prepared to sacrifice democratic principles and practices in the name of preserving a status quo which is taking on a very unpleasant shape? It is undeniable that the UK in particular has seen a totalitarian drift towards the banning, stifling and disruption of peaceful protests, ironically during the period of ‘New’ Labour ‘liberal’ democracy, which is now looking like New Stalinism, complete with its very own NKVD.

The London G20 summit saw non-violent pressure by hundreds of thousands of citizens on a number of topics. The City of London protests immediately before the summit were rowdy, but still overwhelmingly peaceful despite media hysteria, aggressive policing and a handful of troublemakers. Bystander and father of nine Ian Tomlinson died that day (Thus passim). Video footage shows that he was struck down by a masked, baton-wielding policeman. Many police wore balaclavas or took off their identification numbers. By telling the media before the protests that they were ‘up for it’ if violence ensued, commanding officers whipped up dangerous hysteria. The police denied responsibility, and although they have now identified and suspended the officer who struck the blows, none of the group in the video footage came forward voluntarily, and police statements contained patent falsehoods which were ironically only revealed on camera. As well as constraining rights of assembly, new laws now supposedly prohibit taking the very photos and videos of police officers which have begun to reveal the truth of these events.

The ramifications of the Tomlinson affair, along with the patent disarray of the Met Police on a number of other matters, are echoing across the world. Apart from the fact that he was neither an agitator nor a demonstrator, comparisons can be drawn with the case of Blair Peach, a New Zealander who died in a London demonstration as a result of police brutality in the 1970s. Tellingly, nobody was held accountable at that time. No officer was convicted or even lost their job as a result of the Menezes shooting at Stockwell station, and the security services are currently under a growing cloud for their part in rendition and torture of terrorist suspects. If this incompetent and crude suppression of centuries-old liberties continues, the entire British population is in danger of kettling. That’s why the Avaaz.org petition is important.

Follow this link to watch the video and sign the emergency petition to fix British policing of demonstrations. “Avaaz will deliver it directly to the Home Secretary, Parliament and the Metropolitan Police” - provided they don’t meet with an ‘accident’ along the way . . .

http://www.avaaz.org/en/fix_british_protest_policing

A close friend, far richer and better-informed than I (not difficult) sent me some completely speculative global economic notes, which he admits depend upon force majeure and all that. See how many you agree with. I personally think the oil price drop is overstated, since  China, India, parts of SE Asia some parts of Latin America but particularly Brazil are still growing. If India and China descend into full blown recession, then the world is in terminal trouble and we had better get used to austerity, if we’re not already there.

• Complete and fairly permanent reduction of bank credit globally, with certainly 3 and possibly 10 years or more of credit limitation. Absolutely no chance of inflation in the UK, USA or Western European Euro nations for the next 3 – 5 years at least. 

• Big potential arbitrage play between € and $.

• Swiss franc and US dollar the only worthwhile currencies for the next 24 months. Sterling to be back at 1.35€ – 1.50€ within 3 years, due to the relative economic weakness across the Eurozone. US dollar to be 1.05 – 1.15 against sterling by 2010 / 2011 (it currently stands at 0.68).

• Oil to bottom at between $16.00 and $19.00 per barrel over the next 12 months (currently $51.00).

All bets are off if the US adopts protectionism, apart from currency levels, which will be about the same and the oil price which will be even lower. If protectionism were to take hold in the USA the downside will be greater in the UK, Europe and China. (This last one I agree with, wholeheartedly).

Happy Easter, John J Kelly

“Let me say this as clearly as I can. The United States is not and never will be at war with Islam. . . America’s relationship with the Muslim world world cannot and will not be based on opposition to Al Qaeda.” Barack Obama, Ankara, 6 April, 2009.

President Obama’s Turkish state visit is pivotal because he used it as a powerful opportunity to reverse the primitive Islamophobia which has blighted US relations with the Middle East and empowered 20 years of stupid, unrepresentative fundamentalist terrorism. It also signals recognition that Turkey is potentially the most important US regional ally, not least because of its geography. It is the Middle East’s largest secular democracy and has NATO’s second largest armed forces after the US. It has a modern plural economy, a global outlook, youthful demographics and a respect for education and social improvement. Most important, it can and will stand up to any other beligerent power in the region and would probably prevail, nuclear conflict notwithstanding.

Turkey’s robust opposition to its former ally Israel’s destructive adventures in the Lebanon and Gaza can be used by Obama to send a message the Netanyahu administration (and to AIPAC) to exercise restraint. Turkey, no shrinking violet when it comes to dealings with terrorist groups or dissent, (without excusing its past, I personally think its reputation as a human rights abuser has been exaggerated), has opined that Hamas must be included in any peace talks (however odious that may be to some, Hamas is an elected authority). So has Syria, another fiercely secular state. Pragmatism should not be confused with endorsement. It has its own internal tensions regarding fundamentalism, but has by and large dealt with these efficiently and, by contrast with other players, reasonably. Contrary to received wisdom, the military has been far from heavy-handed of late. Turkey is a sophisticated ‘managed’ democracy. Its model may not please the idealogues, but, as we saw with Iraq, ‘Democracy Inc.’ (inverted totalitarianism) proved itself least as dangerous as Al Qaeda.

If Obama can genuinely open a sensible dialogue with Iran and Syria and if these countries recognise the opportunity and react accordingly, it will confound the Israeli hawks and their Beltway coat-holders who have led US Middle East policy by the nose for so long for their own dubious purposes. Obama has made clear that he favours a two state solution, which Netanyahu continues to oppose. He has also made it clear that Turkey could gain huge prestige by reconciling its differences with Armenia. It has already gained much by conceding identity rights to its Kurdish population. In doing so, it has weakened grassroots support for the PKK and with the first Kurdish parliamentarians, promises to include, not isolate, the substantial Kurdish minority in Turkey’s national identity.

The benefits to the world of a progressive plural democracy with economic links to Europe and the US are immense. Turkey has adhered to customs union with the EU since 1996, has delivered on its NATO commitments and, in fact, its refusal to play the Bush game as regards Iraq arguably saved the country and the region from complete conflagration. A Middle Eastern country  will never be comfortable in the ‘expanded’ EU. Turkey has little to gain from being an unwelcome bit player in a club which has long outgrown its remit, has overplayed its hand and has bitten off far more than it can chew with its latest impoverished member states. It is also puzzling to understand exactly why or how Obama’s endorsement of Turkey’s EU membership carries any legitimacy. Last time I looked, the USA was not a member state. And it already has an Uncle Tom.

   Lula da Silva says this problem was caused by white men with blue eyes. That lets both of us off the hook

Several Latin American leaders have reported the same disturbing hallucination. A rumpled fat man with a very large head, dressed in a cheap suit and badly-knotted tie turns up unannounced and tries to get them to commit to spending vast sums of money, which they do not have, on unspecified things which they do not need. ‘At first I thought it was the Man from Del Monte,’ said an anonymous victim, ‘but he insisted his mission was bigger than pineapple chunks and concerned nothing less than saving the world’s poor from the wasteful antics of the world’s rich. I pointed out that it was ‘white men with blue eyes’ who had caused the problem. At that point he took out his false eye and said “well in that case, it wasnee me.” My friend Cristina Kirchner says he recommended ‘quantitative easing’ but it sounded like Peronist hyper-inflation. When she politely asked him about the Malvinas, he said; “Exactly. Remember the Belgrano. Vote yes to excess and nobody gets hurt, Evita.”

‘When I recommended that he went to see President Chavez of Venezuela, who has vowed to cut spending on mobile phones, parties, cakes, pointless trips abroad and wasteful public projects, the Man from Del Monte said Hugo was a publicity-crazed megalomaniac, friend of someone called Red Ken, only interested in nationalising banks and keeping global assets such as oil and gas to himself and helping troublemakers like Cuba, Nicaragua and Guatemala. Besides, only the top 20 countries by GDP were invited (including the EU, which wasn’t yet a country). 

“The Man from Del Monte promised plenty of snatch squads, riots and mayhem, tasers and coshing just like the old days in Latin America. “These people dinna ken that giving billions of dollars to bankers would help the world’s poor,” he said. “But look at Fred Goodwin. He rose from poverty to become the UK’s highest paid pensioner – and he’s only 50.” I said I was unaware of this Fred Shred man, but that his friend George Soros, who had helped the UK in the past by selflessly keeping it out of the European Monetary System and making $1 billion dollars on the side, had said that the focus should be on the developing economies. I said that Mrs. Merkel had put two fingers up to his proposal that Germany become a Weimar Republic again, and that the world’s bond markets had failed to see the logic of his masterplan, failing to buy less than £2 billion of UK gilts. “The world’s poor bankers won’t forget that,” he growled, “and neither will the Bilderberg boys if you don’t join the coalition of those willing to spend recklessly and print pretend money – you did it in the past, why not now?” When I asked him if Barack Obama was coming, the Man from Del Monte, he say “Yes. I’m taking him to dinner at a jive club and buying him an Arctic Monkeys T shirt. Plus, the police have orders not to stop his car when he travels through Brixton.”  ”Why didn’t you say so earlier, fat boy, I’ll be on the next plane,” I said, “But why are you holding your G20 photo opportunity in a horrible docklands warehouse in a bankrupt country?” “It’s symbolic of the new economic landscape we’re all working towards creating,” said the Man from Del Monte. ‘And, anyway, that’s where we’re holding the Olympics, too.”

John J Kelly